EUR/USD's fall from 1.5061 extended further to as low as 1.4682 last week. Subsequent recovery was limited well below 1.5061 and EUR/USD weakened again to close the week near to the weekly low. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week and break of 1.4682 will confirm that fall from 1.5061 has resumed and should target 1.4483 support next. On the upside, though, a break of 1.4858 minor resistance will argue that fall from 1.5061 has completed and will turn focus back to this high.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2456 has possibly completed at 1.5061 with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Focus now turns to 1.4483 resistance and break there will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.2456 to 1.5061 at 1.3451 and beyond. Also, note that price actions from 1.2329 are treated as part of the wide range consolidation that started at 1.6039 and hence, completion of rise from 1.2456 will signal completion of such consolidations too. On the upside, nevertheless, a break above 1.5061 will indicate that rise from 1.2456 is still in progress for 1.6039 high.
In the long term picture, the lack of impulsive structure of the rise from 1.2329 argues that it's the second wave of the wide range consolidation that started from 1.6039. Another medium term decline could still be seen to 1.2329 and below but downside should be contained above 1.1639 support. The long term up trend from 0.8223 is set to resume after completing the three wave medium term consolidation from 1.6039.
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